Tuesday, November 29, 2011

2 70's Flashbacks and a 2012 Prediction

I was a teenager throughout the 70's. I remember that decade, and its events, quite well. I had two flashbacks to the 70's today through news stories, which lead me to a prediction.

Flashback #1: Barack Obama fell below Jimmy Carter's popularity numbers in Gallup polling today.

Yes, that Jimmy Carter. Worst President in my Lifetime Jimmy Carter.

Jimmy is one of the big-giant-brains that Democrats love who fail in the office of the presidency of the United States. Barack Obama is another one. Carter, a one-termer, is a predictor of Obama's future.

For what it is worth, I saw Jimmy Carter speak in person once. It was a day or so before the 1980 election vs. Ronald Reagan. The media was calling it as close and hard to predict. Carter flew in to St. Louis, believing the Illinois and Missouri were swing states that would make the difference if it was that close. I happened to be working for McDonnel Douglas at the time and living in an apartment down the street from the mall where Carter spoke. I was a college co-op student, meaning liberal, at the time and I was vehemently opposed to Reagan. Though I voted for 3rd party candidate John Anderson, I wanted Carter to beat Reagan. After Carter's speech I had this thought: "That's all you've got?" Awful. I knew it was not going to go well for Carter the next day, and it didn't as Reagan won in a landslide. It was my first real look at how biased the media was and how wrong their polling was as a result. An eye-opener.

Carter is defined by his failure in dealing with the Iran hostage crisis, which brings us to...

Flashback #2:  Hard line Iranian students assualt the British Embassy and demand it close

Wow. Takes me right back to 1979. I remember the students taking over the American embassy in Tehran, and the 444 day struggle to get our hostages back. I remember the special ABC program with Ted Koppel that sprang up - and that I watched each night - that became "Nightline".

We're right back there. Only more so. The MidEast is as destabilized right now as it has been in my lifetime. Egypt is going to the Muslim Brotherhood. Libya to al-Qaida. Kuwait has fallen. And Iran under Obama's watch is getting nuclear weapons. This is not going to end well.

Which brings me to my Prediction: Barack Obama is not going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party coming out of their convention. Mark it down.

Barack Obama is Jimmy Carter. He's a failed president who will not be able to overcome 9% unemployment, or the international events that are spiraling out of his control. Obama has checked out of governing and is in the permanent campaign mode, but it will not help him. The more he is out on the stump the farther his poll numbers fall.

Newt Gingrich is the corresponding Ronald Reagan. He can paint the picture of Morning in America, and may well be the nominee.

The shocking difference in this Obama / Gingrich parallel to Carter / Reagan is this: Obama will not make it out of the convention as the nominee to battle Gingrich.

I know. I know. That seems ridiculous. He's the incumbent and the presumptive nominee.

There you go presuming. You're presuming that circumstances in November 2012 when the election comes around are going to be pretty much the same as the are in November of 2011. That things will be stable, and that stability will favor the incumbent.

Here's where you are making your mistake. The world is not stable right now. It is incredibly destablilized, and is destabilizing faster each day. The Arab Spring morphing into the Muslim Brotherhood Winter. The collapse of the Euro that's coming - will it even make it to January? The Occupy movement pushing on our already fragile economy. SCOTUS and ObamaCare. Iran's push toward regional hegemony. China's push toward militarization. Russia's re-emergence as a power hostile to the US. Pakistan's destabilization and anger toward the US. Danger of re-emerging civil war in Iraq as America pulls out.

September 2012, the date of the Democratic Party nominating convention, is a long way off. Events are overtaking our absentee president. Barack Obama will not be a viable choice by the time the convention takes place.

Mark it down. I said it here.